Or: How to fix what television keeps trying to break
Last year, we finally got a “real” playoff for the Division I FBS College Football Championship.
Arbitrary decisions were made about who would play – traditionally powerhouse teams that didn’t exactly live up to their hype through the year to begin with, and then duked it out on the gridiron to decide who would be stand tall atop the mountain of the FBS.
Here’s the thing: the selections last year and this year have no real basis on who are the best teams for each season.
So what happened to the College Football Playoff?
I’m going to pull a Bill Maher ripoff here and just say “I don’t know it for a fact, but I know it’s true” – greed happened to the CFP.
Every other sport in the country has a real playoff. Teams play a regular season, and seeding for the playoffs are done based on records in their particular conferences and the overall regular season. Baseball, basketball, all other levels of football, heck even volleyball follows these rules. Rankings don’t really matter as much. Even professional sports follow this model, offering wildcard play-in spots to fill out the brackets to make it to “world championships.” (A whole other issue to tackle another day…)
College football under the current system for the big name schools?
Unless you win the SEC, B1G, Big XII and ACC title, you have a slim chance of playing in one of the eight additional spots available in a 12-team playoff.
Essentially making it impossible for other conferences without the parity to make any kind of impact in the “playoff” system that has been created. Based on what teams were selected in 2024, that seemed to be the rule for the road ahead. You better have a big enough fanbase to make it worth the committee’s while to put you in the playoff, otherwise you aren’t worth it for ESPN’s desire to make as much money as possible off of the games. Not including what they also make off of all the other bowl games they broadcast.
This year saw a change to that system, with two additional bids provided to the AAC winner Tulane, and the Sunbelt winner James Madison University since ACC winner Duke wasn’t exactly in a spot to claim they should be in the dance. The Green Wave and the Dukes are the first Group of Five teams to actually have a decent chance of making it further in the tourney, but with their matchups it’ll be a hard road ahead for the smaller teams playing David versus the Goliaths that are Ole Miss and Oregon (the respective opponents.)
Arbitrary decisions based off of arbitrary data – rating and money instead of performance on the field.
And honestly, let’s be clear: all rankings are based off of opinion, with data generated essentially to give the numbers 1 through 25 teams a reason for being put in those places.
Here’s why I know this is true: each week, a team faces an opponent. They could play each week for 10 weeks, and Team A might win nine of those 10 games. Team B beats them in one of them. Clearly Team A is the better team.
But put Team A with others: B, C, D, E, F, G, H, etc. Team A has a 9-1 record, and Team B has a 1-9 record. Team C has a 8-2 record against Team D, who are 2-8. E has a 7-3 record over F, who are 3-7, and so forth.
What have you actually learned about Team A? They can beat Team B a lot, but have a bad loss to Team B on their record. Clearly Team A is the better team, but are they better than Team C who they never played? How about Team D? Basically until two teams actually play each other, the way we currently define our “rankings” in these contexts have little to do with actual performance since until you have head-to-head competition, no one can actually know whether Team A is better than Team C.
The logic under this specific example is essentially how the College Football Playoffs made their reasoning for deciding who should be in, and who gets left out. Miami and Notre Dame played each other at the opening of the season, with the Fighting Irish finishing 10-2 overall after that loss and another to Texas A&M.
But Notre Dame is left out for the Canes because why? The heads-up matchup, even though Miami (10-2) didn’t play in their conference championship game and got in, while ACC champ Duke is sitting at home for the rest of December with a 7-5 record and get to play in the Tiger Sun Bowl. Notre Dame feeling slighted by the committee opted not to play this bowl season at all.
Clearly victories matter in some context, but not in others.
You look at Alabama, and the Crimson Tide shouldn’t be in the playoffs either if you base it off of how their season has gone so far. You beat Georgia then lose to them in the SEC championship game in embarrassing fashion and sit at 10-3 overall and have a rematch against Oklahoma in the opening round. Shouldn’t that be a spot for another team?
Here’s the honest truth: when it comes to College Football’s big brands the College Football Playoff committee cares more about the matchups that will draw the most eyeballs instead of who are the best teams in the country.
If that were the actual metric, then clearly several teams who made it to the playoffs this year wouldn’t usually make the cut.
Should the CFP actually want to make the parity for the Division I FBS playoffs something worthy of the brackets created, they need to make some changes. REAL changes that will actually provide a REAL playoff to decide who is the best in the land.
First among those: the playoff should provide a chance for every conference to have a representative team to play. Yes, that would mean expanding the playoffs to more teams getting in, but ultimately that is a good thing for ESPN because it expands the number of games they get to show on their network and streaming platform in December.
Yes that would mean more games on the schedule, but honestly? Players are getting paid for their time, and if they want to win a title then they need to secure their chinstraps and get on the gridiron already. They should WANT to play more games to show off that they are the best. Or be sent home going down with a fight.
So how exactly would a 32-team playoff work? Actually, it would be pretty easy. I’m going to use 2025’s top teams from each conference to determine who should get in and out, along with some basic rules to keep it simple.
Rules and Seedings
Conference champions get an automatic bid into the tournament for the nine conferences (We aren’t counting the PAC-12 this year) but are seeded based on overall win-loss record, 1 through 9.
To cater to an independent (in football) Notre Dame and UConn (for the moment) we get this rule: if an independent wins 10 games, they get to be in the 10th seed behind the conference champions. If not, they have the chance with the 20-34 round to get in if their record overall exceeds those of conference teams in contention.
Seeds 11 through 20 are given to the Conference Runners-up in title games, placed by their overall win-loss record.
The rest of the seeds are determined through the nine conferences based on overall records (with tiebreakers determined by common opponent win/loss in conference, and if needed margin of win number.) These teams MUST WIN 9 games to be playoff contenders. Independents would be categorized among this group if they also have nine wins, and are seeded based on any wins over common opponents, or based on a variable defined as X, which is the figure of the total points scored subtracted by total points given up between two teams with the same record.
Like this:
X=(TPS-TPL)
If Team A X > Team B X (or vice versa) the team with the higher number is seeded higher.
The final two team spots would be play-in games and this is where I’m throwing a bone to the major conferences AND television networks: I’m giving you two matchups between a B1G and ACC teams, and SEC and Big XII teams to open the playoffs. These would be played the Tuesday prior to their matchups with No. 1 and No. 2 respectively on Saturday nights of Week 1 of the College Football Playoffs.
Something like this would happen:
Vanderbilt (10-2) is seeded at 25 over Oklahoma (10-2) who is a play-in team for the 31st based on results of all conferences playing in 2025 in win-loss record, and the points scored – points given up basic math.
Sooners had 317 points scored – 167 points given up = 150
Commodores had 473 points scored – 263 points given up = 210
This provides an realistic view of how both programs play despite an Oklahoma beating Temple 42-3 in Week 3, or Vanderbilt stomping Georgia state 70-21 in a similar fashion in Week 4, while also accounting for a loss to Alabama for one program an a win for another.
Vanderbilt and Oklahoma get in because their overall schedules were better with win loss records than those in other conferences based simply on these rules that are easy to follow, despite being lower in conference rankings than others like Pitt and SMU in the ACC, for example.
Here’s where schools this year would end up in the 32-team playoff under these simple, easy to follow rules for seeding:
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- James Madison
- Tulane
- Kennesaw State
- Boise State
- Western Michigan
- Duke
- Notre Dame*
- Ohio State
- BYU
- North Texas
- Alabama
- Virginia
- New Mexico
- Jacksonville State
- Troy
- Miami (OH)
- Texas A&M
- Ole Miss
- Oregon
- Miami (FL)
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- UNLV
- Old Dominion
- Navy
- Arizona
- San Diego State
- (Houston at Oklahoma play-in)
- (Southern Cal at Georgia Tech play-in)
Here’s how I believe the brackets would break down under such a theoretical system as well:
Under this system, you get the same kind of mix you’d get with the NCAA basketball tournament: both smaller teams getting the opportunity to get into the playoffs along with traditional powerhouses playing against each other – which is honestly what fans want to see in the first place. It also avoids the mistake that the basketball tournament makes, by avoiding top seed matchups with teams like Charlotte or San Jose State where the games can be mainly described as lackluster but do provide surprises from year-to-year. This version avoids under the current conditions of college football from giving overhyped teams with inflated records due to dominating a conference and weak opponents an easy win opening round.
Some of these teams will on paper look like the kind of wins that SEC teams buy for Homecoming. That is based on perceived biases in college football coverage that have been around for decades.
Here’s a good example: prior to Howard Schellenberger taking over as head coach of Miami (FL), the Hurricanes were a nothing team. Perennial losers. But they’ve played in some of the biggest games in the past decades and been coached by big names and most importantly fostered huge talents. Now? Dem Canes are a household name.
It is harder to achieve that status in today’s environment than it was in the 1980s, but there are plenty of teams on the rise or making a comeback that would love a shot in the big dance. Jacksonville State would give a team like Oklahoma a run for its money if it meant a title was possible for them, if given a real chance to shine on a national level.
But never getting the chance means those kinds of programs can’t build up the kind of opportunities they should be getting since they don’t have the same access to media dollars generated by large conference contracts being distributed from ESPN to the member teams and increased exposure they have from being part of the Big 4.
That’s one of the problems with college football: you can’t base what is happening week-to-week based on the TV network bias that has been presented. Any given weekend, any team can win. Why? Because you can’t know what is going on mentally, emotionally or physically with any players on the gridiron no matter their age. You slow down half a step in coverage on defense as a player, and it could mean the difference between a Pick Six and giving up a score to the opposing team.
Plus, your biases are based on who gets time on the small screen. You think Tulane would be a better football program over the past decades if they were able to access SEC television money? How about James Madison if they got the exposure that Ohio State gets? These smaller programs representing some of the best schools in the country get the title of underdog in every conversation, never taken seriously and yet this year are able to be on the biggest stage because the big named programs couldn’t finish their season when it was time to step up and compete.
I believe the way we fix college football and the playoffs are to give these teams the chance to play on larger stages than they have before, and this year’s 12-team playoff might actually give us a chance to see whether that opportunity proves the point.
But in a real FAIR situation, one based on how teams play and not arbitrary rankings and who gets the most attention on ESPN, you can see how my list makes more sense. It is more like what you’d see out of March Madness instead of the current playoff situation.
A 32-team playoff also provides the following: increase viewership for college football in December and January, and with more games that matter instead of traditional bowls that only give a team a trophy and an extra outing for a small pile of cash versus what they would make during a potential five-game playoff run.
PLUS: there are a plethora of bowl games that would provide some opportunities for teams and cities to still generate revenue, continuing traditions with bowls rotating annually to host specific games starting in the second round.
You still have much of the fanfare around December and January still in play, but balancing between the desire of football fans, the teams who play and the businesses who generate billions annually in the process.
Who wouldn’t like to hear their favorite team winning four bowls in their national championship run? I would love to see Auburn do that personally. The big bowl games can still represent the quarter and semifinal games, and you still get the sponsorships and tourism money too from fans wanting to travel to see their teams play.
When would teams play?
The five-round, 32 (plus 4 for play-ins) would span five weeks from mid-December through mid-January. If THIS year were an example, we would play the following schedule:
Conference title games (first Friday/Saturday of December) – Dec. 5/6 (Still same)
Army/Navy weekend (no bearing on outcome of playoffs) – Dec. 13 (Still same weekend, then we get the Heisman trophy presentation this weekend too.)
Then after selection Sunday following Conference Title championships, you start playing the following week.
Week 1 of Playoffs:
Play-in games
- Tuesday, Dec. 16 – USC at Georgia Tech 7 p.m. EST kickoff
- Tuesday, Dec. 16 – Houston at Oklahoma 7 p.m. CST kickoff
Round 1
- Thursday, Dec. 18 – Utah at Duke 7:30 p.m. EST
- Thursday, Dec. 18 – Jacksonville St. at New Mexico 7 p.m. MST
- Thursday, Dec. 18 – Oregon at Ohio St. 7:30 p.m. CST
- Thursday, Dec. 18 – Troy at Virginia, 7 p.m. EST
- Friday, Dec. 19 – Old Dominion at Kennesaw St. 7 p.m. EST
- Friday, Dec. 19 – UNLV at Boise St. 7 p.m. MST
- Friday, Dec. 19 – Texas A&M at N. Texas, 7:30 p.m. CST
- Friday, Dec. 19 – Ole Miss at BYU, 8 p.m. MST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – Miami (OH) at Alabama 12 p.m. CST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – San Diego St. at Texas Tech 2 p.m. CST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – Vanderbilt at Western Michigan 3:30 p.m. CST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – Arizona at James Madison 4 p.m. EST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – Navy at Tulane 6 p.m. CST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – Miami at Notre Dame 7 p.m. CST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – USC/GT winner at Indiana, 8 p.m. CST
- Saturday, Dec. 20 – Houston/Oklahoma winner at Georgia, 7:30 p.m. EST
I bolded the Round 1 games under this system that would provide A LOT of viewership overall.
Then you would progress through bowls selected to represent the second round. These would rotate annually, allowing for the Bowl System to continue and provide some additional meaningful reasons to play for trophies in December. The remainder of the bowls would still be available, but they wouldn’t take center stage like these eight bowl games would during the second round, and would be scheduled AROUND the ones selected.
In my hypothetical 2025 tournament, those would be played on Second Round Saturday in the following bowls, with games scheduled throughout the day starting at noon and continuing until final kickoff at 9 p.m. EST.
Second Round Saturday
- LA Bowl (winners of Indiana/play-in vs Utah/Duke)
- XBOX Bowl (winners of T A&M/N. Texas vs Navy/Tulane)
- Gator Bowl (winners of Vandy/W. Mich. vs Jax. St./New Mexico)
- Pop Tarts Bowl (winners of Ole Miss/BYU vs SDUS/Texas Tech)
- Music City Bowl (winners of Arizona/JMU vs Oregon/Ohio St.)
- Las Vegas Bowl (winners of UNLV/Boise St. vs Miami (OH)/Alabama)
- Citrus Bowl (winners of Old Dom./Kenn. St. vs Miami (FL)/Notre Dame)
- Alamo Bowl (winners of Troy/UVA vs play-in/Georgia)
The quarterfinals would then be the big four: Cotton, Orange, Rose and Sugar and the semis feature the Fiesta and Peach.
These six majors would continue to rotate as they have been annually to see who hose quarterfinals and semifinals, with the four bowls played on New Years Day (January 1, a Thursday) for the quarterfinal and a semifinal round the following Saturday night, January 10, to play in Arizona and Atlanta.
The National Championship game would end the tournament on Saturday, January 17. In my theorized version, a city would bid annually for the host rights. Miami would host it again.
The matchups would work out like this: Cotton Bowl features the winners of LA Bowl vs Xbox Bowl, the Orange Bowl hosts the Pop Tarts and Gator Bowl victors, the Rose Bowl gets the winners of the Music City Bowl versus the Las Vegas Bowl, and the Sugar Bowl hosts the Alamo Bowl and Citrus Bowl winners.
The Fiesta would then host the winners of the Rose and Sugar Bowls, and the Peach Bowl plays host to the Cotton and Orange Bowl winners the following weekend.
Culminating in the big game annually played on a rotating basis in different cities. Which provides economic opportunities for every city in the country to get a chance to play host if they are willing to bid for the prize announced two years prior to each city’s host bid winning. For instance: the 2027 National Championship would be announced in 2025 after the season is over for the bid winner for host city, and then in 2026 for 2028, etc.
Who would win this season?
I decided since I created a simulated playoff bracket that I should at least give a good guess at how the outcomes would turn out for each team. I’m guessing that Round 1 would play out as many would expect it would:
Oklahoma defeats Houston and in a close finish, Georgia Tech beats USC to round out the play-in games.
Utah takes down Duke to officially open the tournament on Thursday of Week 1, followed by a shootout won in the last minute by Jacksonville State, and Ohio State knocking out Oregon in a rare Thursday game in Columbus.
Friday sees Virginia knock out Troy by a big win, Kennesaw State remaining alive over Old Dominion, and an upset: UNLV beats Boise State by a field goal after the Boise kicker misses wide right on a last second attempt to tie for overtime. Texas A&M beats out North Texas easily, and Ole Miss knocks off BYU by two touchdowns.
Alabama blows over Miami (Ohio), Texas Tech falls to SDSU in an upset, and the rest you expect: Vandy, Tulane, Miami (FL), Indiana and Georgia finish on top. James Madison somehow survives Arizona to stay alive.
That would give you a second round with Indiana vs. Utah in the LA Bowl, Texas A&M vs Tulane in the XBOX Bowl, Vanderbilt vs Jacksonville State in the Gator Bowl, Ole Miss vs. SDSU in the Pop Tarts Bowl, James Madison vs. Ohio State in the Music City Bowl, UNLV vs. Alabama in the Las Vegas Bowl, Kennesaw State vs. Miami in the Citrus Bowl, and Georgia vs. Virginia in the Alamo Bowl.
I believe you’d end up with Indiana, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Ohio State, UNLV (upset in essentially a home game), Miami (FL) and Georgia out of this field.
UNLV would get the upset over Bama not by much, but I suspect Vegas would come out to support their Rebels in this one.
You’d end up with a Cotton Bowl featuring Indiana vs. Texas A&M, an Orange Bowl with Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, a Rose Bowl with Ohio State and UNLV and a Sugar Bowl with Georgia and Miami. All of these would be excellent marquee matchups.
Indiana, Vanderbilt, Ohio State and Miami would move forward with wins. We’d get Vanderbilt and Indiana in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State vs. Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.
A national championship would end up between an undefeated Indiana vs. a Miami squad that somehow rallied to win over Ohio State in the last minute in low-scoring defensive slog, and how that would go? I picked Indiana, just because they have the guys this year to make something like this happen.
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