Primary Day

Once again, Georgia residents are called to come to the polls and cast a ballot in the upcoming Primary vote for candidates seeking local and state-level offices.

Whereas the passions of previous elections have seen a wider margin of turnout for voters, this go around for the primaries it seems that folks have mainly decided to stay home. Looking at the turnout in just Polk County for early voting (usually in these recent years where the bulk of the vote is tallied on these special Tuesday nights,) this time around the campaign merry-go-round it seems that folks are feeling the fatigue of politics.

A much lower turnout for the primaries – where actually a lot of the decision-making is ultimately done through lack of interest in the two-party system locally – means that this time around a small percentage of candidates will at least locally mostly sail on into November without opposition.

Exhaustion at the moment with elections doesn’t mean that voters won’t be roweled up come November, when a goodly slate of local and state candidates face opposition for the first time in years. Local elections actually feature a Democrat in the County Commission race, who gets to skip the primaries without opposition and run right into the latter half of the year. An independent is in the race for the Third District County Commission seat.

It should be noted that these decisions shouldn’t come down to primaries, which becomes a replacement vote for November because of the way that local seats are determined. Honestly? We should probably push for non-partisan elections for all local-based seats as a starting point for change anyhow. The duopoly that both the Republican and Democratic parties hold on such races is ridiculous, and takes participation away from voters who don’t care about either the donkeys or elephants ruling the American jungle.

Plus, should our neighbors and friends who decide to take up the challenge of being a local politician be forced to put their views into a single party box? Are any of us even satisfied anymore with being tagged as either MAGA or “Liberal” these days? The extreme wings of both parties have determined for the rest of us what we should believe if calling ourselves a Democrat or Republican. I don’t think that folks here care much about definitions decided by people in Washington, D.C. that have little concept of what it is like to live in our neck of the woods, and feel condescended to when fed political lines about “inflation is Joe Biden’s fault” or various lines about how horrible the War in Iran was. But this sidebar is ultimately a top for another day.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the monolithic political control that has been the norm locally (at least in this corner of Northwest Georgia) is facing any kind of change. If I were a betting man, I’d put my money down thusly on how things will work out today:

County Commission, District 1

Chip Popham has a real chance to defeat David McElwee in the District 1 race for County Commission and end that race this evening. McElwee’s stance on the Tax Allocation District issue around Cedartown will likely figure into the thinking of local voters at some point when they tap their choice on voting machines. That isn’t to say that David McElwee doesn’t have a chance of beating the odds. But based on experience of how folks tend to vote when someone says something unpopular, I’d put my dollars and cents on Popham taking this one close. Only because I’m looking at the ~3,100 voters that turned out for the primary and expecting that another 1,500 or so folks will cast a ballot for the GOP primary today. Give or take. My numbers could end up being completely wrong.

I will say that either way that this one goes, both the gentlemen running for the seat will be good in the role. Voters don’t lose on this one.

County Commission , District 2

We will require a run-off for the Primary thanks to this race, unless for some crazy reason one of the candidates can pull out a total win on this one. I’m guessing here that it’ll probably come down to Johnny Crawford and Terry Marangakis in District 2.

Where that will end up in the run-off in June? Too far out to say at just the moment. I want to see data from tonight before I try to make that prediction. Assuming no one wins this one outright.

No matter what happens though, whoever comes out of the June run-off will have to face the music in November. Roderick “Rah Rah” Turner is the only Democrat in the race, so he gets to sail off into the sunset tonight and begin campaigning in earnest for the fall.

County Commission, District 3

I appreciate that some will say “Kevin is only making this pick because Lee Burch ran campaign ads on his site.”

Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy about the fact that Mr. Burch decided to purchase some ads on Polk Today’s Facebook and the sites during this campaign season. I’ll note he’s just one of two candidates who took it upon themselves to even inquire about what the cost might be.

And here’s some honest truth to add: I don’t really know Mr. Burch. I’ve talked to him three times since he qualified. Once on the phone not long after he filled out his paperwork and paid his fees, then at April Georgia Cities Week opening of the new amphitheater, and finally after another brief phone call to arrange breakfast and some text messages back and forth, we had a nice conversation together at Chick-fil-A.

Otherwise, all I really know is this: He was a GBI Agent and State Trooper during his career. He’s got kids and grandkids here locally. He seems like a perfectly nice guy. That’s it.

I’ve covered Marshelle Thaxton in this race during my time at the paper before he decided to hang up his hat last time from the County Commission. Marshelle was an effective Commissioner, serving as Chair for many of those years, and we have exchanged several conversations over the years. He’s always been professional, even when we disagree.

Actually, the person I know most in this race is Cathy Sego-McGinnis, who I’ve had multiple conversations with over the years and know a good deal more about her than the other two – at least personally. She’s running as an independent, and has to get signatures together to even be considered on the November ballot. I hope she does. It would certainly give me something different to write about in terms of elections.

But the times keep changing, and it is my opinion that the guys who sat in the chair before should do themselves a favor and let someone else take on the burden.

I think this one ultimately comes down to Lee Burch. He’s a fresh face for the County Commission that needs additional influx of new blood. We’ve already seen that experience playing out with Michael Gravett and John Paschal’s elections in 2024. With contested seats and Hal Floyd retiring after serving for a while now, it is good that we get new folks on the Board.

This is the other side of primary elections deciding seats that everyone forgets: a relatively small number of voters turn out compared to the number of registered voters available, and they are all decided countywide. So all the GOP voters in Cedartown get to help decide on County Commissioners and School Board members in Rockmart, and vice versa as it turns out, since these races have for the most part in years past (and currently) featured only one party. An even smaller number will be deciding on a school board seat for District 2 since a relatively tiny percentage of the county will admit to being Democrats and actually fill out a ballot.

Pushing that thought aside, back to the point: Lee Burch pulls in support from the Cedartown side of Polk County that Marshelle Thaxton won’t. That’s what it’ll come down to. Maybe a little closer than expected, but I’d put my money on a 60-40 split in this one going Burch’s way. Maybe more.

School Board Races

I’m bundling these together since essentially, all these races are decided tonight, and because honestly? All but Dr. Renshaw’s seat does have a primary challenge, but no opposition for November. Dr. Renshaw will retain her seat no matter what happens since she qualified without opposition for May or in the fall on the Midterm ballot.

In District 1 as Britt Madden retires from the board later this year, I’d put my bets on Robin Forston winning the seat. Folks know her to be a child advocate in one capacity or another over the past decades. Her name recognition alone will push her well over the finish line against Greg Forrister. Nothing against Greg, and Robin I know was the only other person to buy campaign ads. But here’s a thing I’ve learned: people willing to invest to win a campaign are invested enough to do a good job. Just based on campaign signs alone, Robin has invested. 60-40 split toward Robin, maybe higher. If you made me get close, she wins with 62% of the primary vote.

Bernard Morgan has been a school board member for a long, long time now. I think that it’s about even odds that Forrest McCombs Jr. takes the seat over come January. This is one that as a Democratic-only primary may be decided by just a few hundred votes in total. I’m putting a pin in this one, because I think it’ll speak to how folks are feeling about the school board overall.

The other race – a GOP decision, so much larger turnout – is the Rockmart-based District 4 seat being contested between Nendra Wofford and Steven Wells. My money is on Wofford in that one, who has done a dang good job of staying on my social media feed through the past two months.

November decisions

We’re going to see a lot of changes coming to the political landscape in Polk. What those winds of fortune might bring is up in the air for the moment until the numbers come in. I suspect, just by sticking my finger in the direction of the breeze that we are in for some big wins tonight for at least two of these races, and close ones for the rest.

The good news? The ballot on the state level is full of candidates from each party. November will ultimately bring some real competition for a change. Among those who have both primary and general election challengers include State House and Senate, and judges and many, many more.

I’ll just be glad one way or another to stop hearing the Gubernatorial campaign ads for a few.